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J. Renewable Sustainable Energy 1, 043108 (2009); doi:10.1063/1.3156008 (16 pages)

Assessment of historic trend in mobility and energy use in India transportation sector using bottom-up approach

Nan Zhou
and Michael McNeil

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 90R4000, Berkeley, California 94720-8136, USA Map This map

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Transportation mobility in India has increased significantly in the past decades. From 1970 to 2000, motorized mobility (passenger-kilometer) has risen by 888%, compared to an 88% population growth ( S. K. Singh, India: Implications For Energy Demand and CO2 Emission (Transport Policy, 2006) ). This has contributed to many energy and environmental issues, and an energy strategy that incorporates efficiency improvement and other measures needs to be designed. Unfortunately, existing energy data do not provide information on driving forces behind energy use and sometimes show large inconsistencies. Many previous studies address only a single transportation mode such as passenger road travel, did not include comprehensive data collection or lack analysis or detail on energy demand by each mode and fuel mix. The current study will fill a considerable gap in current efforts, develop a database on all transport modes including passenger air and water and freight in order to facilitate the development of energy scenarios, and assess the significance of technology potential in a global climate change model. An extensive literature review and data collection has been done to establish the database with a breakdown of mobility, intensity, distance, and fuel mix of all transportation modes. Energy consumption was estimated and compared to aggregated transport consumption reported in IEA India transportation energy data. Different scenarios were estimated based on different assumptions of freight road mobility. Based on the bottom-up analysis, we estimated that the energy consumption from 1990 to 2000 increased at an annual growth rate of 7% for the midrange road freight growth case and 12% for the high range road freight growth case corresponding to the scenarios in mobility, while the IEA data only show a 1.7% growth rate in those years.

© 2009 American Institute of Physics

Article Outline

  1. INTRODUCTION
  2. METHODOLOGY
    1. Bottom-up approach
    2. Existing research
  3. INDIA TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE FROM THE BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS
    1. Passenger Transport
      1. Vehicle stocks and car ownership
      2. Traveled distance and average load factor
      3. Intensity by mode
      4. Fuel share
      5. Passenger-kilometer by mode trend
    2. Freight
      1. Ton-kilometer by mode
      2. Intensity by mode
      3. Truck stocks and distance traveled
      4. Truck average load per vehicle
  4. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE AND DISCUSSION
    1. Discussion on diesel use in the transport sector
    2. Comparison with IEA data
    3. Estimated transportation energy use by mode
    4. Transportation energy use by fuel
  5. CONCLUSIONS

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KEYWORDS and PACS

Keywords

energy conservation, energy consumption, transportation

PACS

ARTICLE DATA

History
Received 5 December 2008
Accepted 29 May 2009
Published 22 July 2009
Permalink
http://link.aip.org/link/JRSEBH/v1/i4/p043108/s1

PUBLICATION DATA

ISSN:

19417012 (print)  
19417012 (online)

Publisher:

$abstract.society.value is a Member of CrossRef American Institute of Physics

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  4. S. K. Singh, India: Implications For Energy Demand and CO2 Emission, Transport Policy, 2006.
  5. R. K. Bose, Energy Policy 26, 1001 (1998).
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  14. See http://www.shipping.gov.in/writereaddata/linkimages/NMDP9895746561.doc.
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  16. See http://www.tcil.com/rt.asp.
  17. Phasing Out Overloading. How Truck Manufacturers Can Go on an Overdrive (http://www.way2wealth.com/research/content_details.php?section=Insights&section_desc=viewsonnews&sid=41&pubid=28575).
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  19. Ministry of Railway (MOR), India, Indian Railways, Annual Report and Accounts (various issues), Railway Board.
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  24. B. P. Pundir, 2001, Potential of Advanced Technology Vehicles in Asia (cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412/articles-37421_nd_30_pundir.pdf).
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  26. National Council Of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), Comprehensive Study of Assess the Genuine Demand and Requirement of SKO, NCAER, New Delhi, 2005, pp. 54 and 121.
  27. Tata Energy Research Institute, CO2 Mitigation and The Indian Transport Sector, 1996.
  28. According to Centre for Science and Environment's website (http://www.cseindia.org/campaign/apc/letter.htm).

Figures (14) Tables (4)

Figures (click on thumbnails to view enlargements)

FIG. 1
Car ownership and GDP per capita.
FIG. 1 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 2
Change in vehicle stock.
FIG. 2 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 3
Estimated passenger transportation mobility by mode.
FIG. 3 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 4
Road passenger transportation mobility by vehicle type.
FIG. 4 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 5
Passenger rail mobility by energy type.
FIG. 5 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 6
Passenger water mobility.
FIG. 6 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 7
Passenger air mobility.
FIG. 7 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 8
Available data for freight ton-kilometer by different sources.
FIG. 8 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 9
Freight transportation mobility by mode.
FIG. 9 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 10
Change in truck stock and utilization.
FIG. 10 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 11
Top-down estimates of Indian transport diesel consumption based on statistics.
FIG. 11 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 12
Comparison of the estimated and IEA transport energy use in India.
FIG. 12 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 13
India transportation energy consumption by mode in 1991–2000.
FIG. 13 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)
FIG. 14
India transportation energy consumption by fuel in 1991–2000.
FIG. 14 View Enlargement | Download High Resolution Image (.zip file)

Tables

Table I. Vehicle utilization in road passenger (see Ref. 4).
Table II. Derived energy intensities in passenger transport (MJ/Pkm).
Table III. The growth rate of the P-km in transportation road sector.
Table IV. Energy intensities in freight transport (MJ/ton km).

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